Russian shadow fleet operations in the Baltic continue to pose a sabotage threat to undersea cables. Taiwan Strait cable vulnerability is under renewed congressional scrutiny. Joint European naval patrols have been mounted but coverage remains limited.

China's rare earth export controls are tightening. The US is accelerating domestic supply chain initiatives. Hormuz closure threatens 23% of non-Chinese critical mineral supply. Antimony Corporation uplisting signals rising investor interest in Western alternatives.

The Iran war has triggered the worst oil supply shock since the 1970s. Brent crude is approaching $100/bbl. Gulf LNG exports face disruption. Markets are swinging on every development. The conflict has demonstrated oil's renewed role as a potent geopolitical tool.

The High Seas Treaty has entered into force, but developing states risk marginalisation. The International Seabed Authority faces a governance crisis following a leaked internal audit note. Deep-sea mining moratorium pressure is intensifying from environmental groups and UN experts.

State-driven sanctions evasion surged 694% in 2025. Russia and Iran have industrialised evasion tactics. Hong Kong firms continue routing European technology to Russia. Crypto evasion volumes are at record highs. UK sanctions enforcement under scrutiny.

Trump's China trip and G2 framing signals a potential diplomatic reset, but Senate Democrats warn of strategic failure. China's 5-Year Plan is pivoting from chip competition to global computing infrastructure provision. US-China gray zone competition is intensifying below the threshold of open conflict.

US AI export controls are evolving rapidly. The bipartisan AI OVERWATCH Act seeks oversight of advanced AI chips. Dual-use regulations are expanding across the US, EU, and China simultaneously, creating compliance complexity. Nvidia licensing pathways have been partially reopened.