Analysis
Strategic assessments and in-depth analysis on critical infrastructure and geopolitical dynamics
Saudi and UAE pipelines can reroute some Gulf crude around a Hormuz closure. Forty percent of it, at best, under ideal conditions. For every other commodity transiting the Strait, there is no bypass and no plan.•
5 March 2026
The Hormuz Bypass Illusion: Why Saudi and UAE Pipelines Cover Crude Oil and Nothing Else
The bypass narrative covers roughly 40% of normal Hormuz crude throughput, on a good day, for oil alone. For LNG, ammonia, aluminium, and sulphur, the bypass coverage is exactly zero.
Strategic Assessment | February 2026•
6 February 2026
The Antimony Paradox: How China's Selective Export Relief Exposes the Defense Industrial Base
China's November 2025 suspension of its antimony export ban is not a concession—it is a refinement. By granting licenses to commercial end-users while maintaining absolute prohibition on military exports, Beijing has created a bifurcated market.
Strategic Assessment | February 2026•
5 February 2026
The Hidden Variable: How Repair Capacity Constraints Are Reshaping Subsea Cable Strategy
The global subsea cable repair fleet is aging, undersized, and unprepared for the coming surge in infrastructure.